Most traders read a bullish sentiment score and buy. The informed ones ask a better question: has the market already priced this in? The answer lives in the EV gap — the divergence between where sentiment points and where price has actually moved.
What an EV gap is
EV stands for expected value. When sentiment is strongly bullish but price has not budged, the expected value implied by the crowd's conviction is higher than what the tape reflects. That gap is the opportunity: you are positioned before the move, not chasing it. Gaps run the other way too — rising price on fading sentiment is a bearish divergence.
How to spot one
- Track the composite sentiment trend, not just today's level — a rising score is more telling than a high static one.
- Overlay it on recent price action: look for sentiment moving ahead of, or against, the price.
- Check breadth: a gap backed by several sources is more credible than one driven by a single noisy feed.
- Note the speed: social sentiment often opens the gap first; news confirms or kills it.
How to confirm it is real
Not every gap is tradeable. Sentiment can lead price because it is early — or diverge because it is wrong, driven by a pump, a bot campaign, or an off-topic search spike. Before acting, confirm against source quality and technicals, and ask what could explain the divergence other than an edge.
Act on the divergence, not on either signal alone — and size the position for the chance you are wrong.
Sintinel surfaces the EV-gap read on every ticker page so the divergence is visible at a glance, then pairs it with Kelly-criterion sizing so a high-conviction gap earns a proportionate — not reckless — allocation.